Assassination Politics

[grarpamp]

Various wrote:

> https://mailing-list-archive.cryptoanarchy.wiki/archive/1996/11/e64f667c278643deb58a45642d0f3ea6b64a01fab294b
cc9be681fd5656895f2/
> Message ID: v03007804aea877ef27a6

> How am I going to get paid?
> I don't mean some pseudoanonymous mechanism of payment,
> but who decides I get paid?
> Who do I complain to if I don't get paid?

> hash of a document describing the intended details
> you pseudonymously complain to the public
> If they cannot prove it ... they lose power.


An autonomous General Prediction Market (GPM) is expected
to morph those "human" problems away.

Such a system would have a reliable survivable uncensorable distributed
P2P VM node network executing a number of functions on its platform.
Most of the theoretical bits do exist as pieces today, with the
last piece being the AI language processors that have recently come
online. In effect, a form of p2p distributed computing environment.

- Oracle capable of searching and accurately assessing external
news sources, self updating its API's to them as it goes.
- Claims Processor that interprets formatted received claims
and feeds them as queries to the Oracle.
- Listing maintenance features, adding, refund on expiry, etc.
- A Cryptocurrency protocol to accumulate bids, send awards.

However it will be quite some time, probably more than a decade,
before people are able to stitch everything all together to create
the first truly autonomous GPM's.

And when that technological AI Singularity happens you will
probably have much bigger things to reckon with than a silly GPM.


Now in the intermediate time until autonomous GPM's appear,
there are some examples of non-autonomous PM's...

There are a few p2p GPM's being built such as Augur, but
all to date seem to have included the ability to cancel
"unconscionable" markets. Of course it is known that what
that really means is cancel culture censoring FreeSpeech,
protecting Power from inconvenient inquisition of FreeSpeech,
etc.

Users may freely fork those projects around such restrictions.

And they'll probably want to develop better resistant comms
and cryptocurrency networks to run everything over.

Then there may be a rise of DAO's to handle some of the needed
functions of a PM. DAO's and Governance and Voting and all that
are already well described elsewhere. Another set of problems.

The fully degenerate case of a Sanjuro style PM has already
been run at least a few times over the years. None proved out.

A more elegant development upon Sanjuro dispenses
with the "website" and uses the "blockchain" itself.

Today anyone can run their own Prediction Markets, over a "blockchain"
or any other cryptocurrency protocol used to transfer nominal value
between addresses. All that is required is that the cryptocurrency
(such as Ethereum ETH) supports the ability to send a message (the
announcement, and a claim, as an arbitrary txtbin, encrypted and
or signed as needed or not) to the same address which is serving
as the publicly visible bid accumulator, or to whatever addresses
the operator of the PM specifies. Today there are hundreds of such
cryptocurrencies to choose from upon which one could run a market.

It must be presumed that for all these non-autonomous forms of PM...

- The game operator is inclined, by nature of their posing or
selecting and running the questions, to have an interest in
seeing an accurate prediction as an answer to those questions.
- Any game operator that does not prove themselves, via starting
with trivially completable questions and increasing to difficult
questions, will now likely be ignored as a probable scammer.
Thus they will not receive accurate predictions.
- Bidders and Claimants will not patronize unproven operators.

... the anonymous drug markets have already proven that
those presumptions are working well enough to achieve
reasonably stable marketplaces capable of servicing users.

Of course Sanjuro's notoriety was notable, so directly running a
pertinent set of questions might still work today, but twice fooled
will be the last time anyone bids such an unproven operation.

It is also notable that the Ultimate Ponzi or Question, for which the
market might seem to require high levels of proven trust, does not
necessarily ever need to be posed, as in some cases that future
question may disappear via the impart of prior lesser predictions...
course of history already changed in that direction without ever
going there directly.

Though the talk of PM's have perhaps yet to be run entirely
within a cryptocurrency protocol, there are already hundreds
of PM's being run on websites to answer trivial standard fare
questions such as outcomes of sports, weather, elections, etc.

And there are lots of people coming up with genius methods to
use many of today's top-100 cryptocurrency protocols in ways
that weren't necessarily specified, forseen, or intended by their
original designers.

In short, it is possible for people to run PM's today.

Designs will grow into becoming native crypto enabled p2p
distributed forms of today's legacy Crowdfunding services.

GPM's will eventually evolve to be used not just for standard fare,
but to "democratize" and disintermediate things that people like,
freely away from the central disaster of Government that they don't like.

Charity, Roads, Science, Lifespan Longevity, Space Travel,
Defense, Fusion Energy, Ridesharing, Voluntaryism, etc.

All of these things can be accomplished with Prediction Markets.

So if you see a stretch of road in need of repair, try sending
the question out for inscription, maybe some other drivers will
see it and bid it up, and maybe someone will come to pave the road
according to the spec that was sent... no Government required.

You might find the results to be pleasantly surprising :)